The next five years are going to be the warmest ever recorded, and the intended maximum temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius could thus be broken, states the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Developments are strengthened by the weather phenomenon El Niño.

”There is 98% probability that at least one of the next five years – and the five-year period as a whole – will be the hottest ever recorded,” states the WMO as cited by AFP.

The Paris Agreement from 2015 entailed the main goal of keeping global warming at 1.5 degrees if possible and ”well below” 2 degrees by the end of the 21st century.

These numbers are measured in relation to the breakthrough of industrialization in the 1800s.

According to the WMO, the average temperature increase was at 1.15 degrees last year.

The organization claims there is a 66% risk that the global surface temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees in at least one of the years in the period from 2023-27. At worst, 1.8 degrees could be reached.

However, this does not mean it will be a permanent condition. Some years, the temperature might be lower. But it represents a clear warning, says the WMO.

”The WMO sounds the alarm that the temperature in shorter periods will exceed the level of 1.5 degrees with increasing frequency,” states WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon caused by very high water temperatures in the southern and central Pacific. It occurs with a two to seven years gap and makes the global temperature go up. When ocean temperatures are dropping, it is known as La Niña.

The WMO has previously predicted that El Niño would very likely occur this year already.

Typically, the temperature would increase the following year.

Global warming is caused by very high levels of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

Despite many attempts to turn the development globally by limiting emissions of CO₂ and methane, the situation remains highly critical.