Oil prices rise Tuesday morning off the possibility of added sanctions as a consequence of war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine, raising concerns about severed supply. At the same time, nuclear talks with Iran have stalled.

A barrel of European reference oil Brent sells for USD 108.90 Tuesday morning CEST against USD 107.99 Monday afternoon. US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate trades at the same time for USD 104.59 against USD 102.75.

“The geopolitical tension is most likely to keep the oil price gaining in the coming days despite efforts made by US and allies,” says Tina Teng, analyst at CMC Markets APAC & Canada, to Reuters:

“In the long run, oil prices may continue the upside momentum due to supply shortfalls and hedging demands to counter high inflation.”

Wood Mackenzie estimates that EU member states as well as Japan and South Korea can swap around 650,000 daily barrels of Russian crude with similar oil from the Middle East that’s normally purchased by China and India. That, Wood Mac says, would restore market balance.

Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Haguida says that the IEA is still working on a coordinated release of oil.

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