There is still some uncertainty in the European natural gas market, even though the worst part of the energy crisis seems to be over, reads a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), referred to by Bloomberg News.

”Major uncertainties remain ahead of the upcoming heating season. A cold winter, together with a full halt in Russia piped gas supplies to Europe early in the heating season, could easily renew market tensions,” the report states.

Prices have fallen significantly since last year, but fuel contracts for the winter months are trading at a higher price than in the short term, a sign that the market is still fragile, according to Bloomberg News.

The price for European natural gas on Tuesday morning is EUR 25.80 per megawatt hour.

According to analyst firm Morgan Stanley, there are several scenarios that could play out as the cold weather begins to hit Europe.

If the low temperatures remain in Europe for an extended period of time, with renewable energy sources not helping sufficiently, the current winter price level could double to EUR 100 per megawatt hour.

Conversely, a mild winter with windy weather could see prices fall to around EUR 15, according to Morgan Stanley.

The IEA report also presents different scenarios depending on how the global gas supply balance will be, as it remains tight.

Should temperatures be warmer than normal, along with reasonable imports of liquefied natural gas, it is likely that Europe will be able to survive the winter without Russian gas, the report says, according to Bloomberg News.