There is great uncertainty about how the oil price will develop next year. The price could end up between USD 55 and 155, according to the financial company Global Risk Management, reports Danish business daily Børsen.

Two wars are clouding the outlook for oil prices at the same time as it remains unclear how the sharp interest rate hikes will affect the global economy and thus also the oil price.

The uncertainty is causing many companies to struggle to set their budgets for next year. One of these is cement company Unicorn, which has 200 trucks and 33 factories, a couple of which are powered entirely by oil.

”It’s the perfect storm that hit us with the war in Ukraine, and now we also have war and conflicts in the Middle East. An incredible number of things are coming together, and if we also get a hard winter, there is no doubt that we could be worried about what will happen then,” Casper Mathiasen, CEO of Unicorn, tells Børsen.

As a consequence of the uncertain outlook for the oil price, the company has chosen to shut down its most energy-intensive factories during the winter months, when energy prices are typically highest.

Global Risk Management’s worst-case scenario with an oil price of 155 dollars is based on an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The mild scenario, on the other hand, is based on the world economy entering a recession, where economic activity and thus the demand for oil decreases, writes Børsen.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, who has made the calculations for Global Risk Management, expects the oil price to end up around 90 dollars in 2024.