Make: Several years of aggressive price decline awaits in the US

There is a battle for every single wind order in the US, and that will lead to a continued price squeeze in the coming years.
Photo: General Electric Company
Photo: General Electric Company

The coming years are expected to bring plunging wind turbine prices on the US market, says Dan Shreve, partner in Make Consulting.

"If you look at the current business environment we are operating in, with the phasing out of the PTC scheme and a market that is growing up to 2020,  there is enormous pressure on wind turbine manufacturers to secure orders now," says Shreve to Ritzau Finans during a wind turbine conference in the US.

The US project developer has been granted four years to complete the projects which secured full PTC subsidies in 2016 via component orders, and this has created clear expectations of extensive installation activity ahead to the end of 2020.

This is followed by a significant drop in the market around the year 2022, according to Make.

In terms of price prospects, several factors are playing a role, says Shreve. One is competition, combined with the fact that suppliers are trying to insure large volumes of orders in as short term as possible.

Meanwhile, the forecast of a sharp decline in the market after the current PTC cycle creates further uncertainty due to the lack of demand for installation at the time.

"The prices will continue to decline. We expect an aggressive price decline over the next three-five years, after which things will begin to stabilize a little more," says Shreve.

English Edit: Lena Rutkowski

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