According to a new report from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), global wind turbine installations are estimated to increase to 110 gigawatts (GW) in 2023 after a subdued market last year of 87GW. And in the period 2023-26, double-digit percentage growth is expected to continue.

”Nearly half of this year’s new wind capacity is likely to be built in China, where the country’s largest wind turbine maker, Goldwind, is estimated to increase its top line by 16%, according to consensus,” writes BI.

Growth expectations are more subdued for European manufacturers Vestas, Siemens Energy and Nordex, but BI sees the possibility that they will outperform analysts’ estimates for 2024-26.

By 2027, the consultancy sees the market rising to 150-190GW, driven by the Inflation Reduction Act in the US and the EU’s REPowerEU and other favorable policies.

”Such a scenario would likely lead to a significant increase in order intake for Vestas, Nordex and other peers,” writes analyst Rob Barnett from BI.

The top line at Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and Nordex is estimated to increase by 10% on average in 2023-26.

In the period 2015-21, the average annual growth was around 16%, and this level could return in 2025-30, according to BI, which assumes increasing demand from net-zero emissions targets.

After massive losses in 2022, there are also prospects for improved earnings for wind turbine manufacturers – helped by the combination of rising turbine prices and falling steel prices.

”Earnings margins at Vestas, Nordex and peers could improve this year due to sustained declines in steel prices, which have fallen more than 50% since they peaked in 2022,” writes Barnett.

”Although European steel prices are around 40% above their pre-pandemic levels, they have fallen significantly since Russia invaded Ukraine, which is likely to set the stage for an earnings recovery at Europe’s largest turbine manufacturers Vestas and Nordex,” he adds.

Siemens Energy, which has now brought all of Siemens Gamesa into the group, also sees the potential for a margin boost once its operational and warranty issues have been resolved.