On Thursday, May 2, before the stock exchange opens, wind turbine manufacturer Vestas will release its results for the first quarter, which is the typical low season for installing turbines.

Analyst Janne Vincent Kjær from Jyske Bank does not expect any flashy results.

But precisely because seasonal fluctuations are well-known, she believes the market will probably overlook the expected weak result - especially if Vestas reiterates its guidance for the full year, which the Jyske Bank analyst expects to be the case.

”However, Vestas is not out of trouble in 2024, as there are still some bad projects in the order books. However, the strong order intake in the fourth quarter bodes well for growth going into 2025, where there are prospects of a double-digit increase in volume, led by the US, where the tax rebate scheme opens up for a significant expansion of wind power over the coming years,” Kjær writes in an update.

The Jyske Bank analyst expects Vestas’ operating margin, EBIT, to balance around 0% in the first quarter ”with a risk of a slightly negative operating margin”.

According to an estimate gathered by Vestas ahead of the report, analyst consensus for the EBIT margin in the first quarter is 0.8%.

On the bottom line, the analyst corps also predicts a loss of EUR 5m compared to a profit of EUR 16.0m in the corresponding period last year.

As usual, a lot of attention will be paid to what Vestas says about the future outlook. Vestas is expected to maintain its full-year guidance of revenue of EUR 16-18bn and an EBIT margin of 4-6% before special items.

Analyst consensus is EUR 17.2bn for revenue and 5.2% for the operating margin.

After a strong fourth quarter of 2023 on the order side, Q1 was a bit disappointing in that regard. Vestas had an announced order intake of 1,503 megawatts in the quarter.

”However, we are not too worried about the weak order intake in the first quarter as we remain confident that orders from the US will continue to roll in, supported by a strong pipeline of potential orders,” Kjær writes.

Including the sum of unannounced orders, which Vestas will reveal in the report, she expects a total order intake for the quarter of 2,033 megawatts, compared to the consensus of 2,235 megawatts.

Translated using DeepL with additional editing by Kristoffer Grønbæk